The global economy is facing massive changes, with major impacts on the site selection landscape. At this year’s Site Selectors Guild Annual Conference in Orlando, FL, four experienced site selection consultants came together to discuss what’s next for the industry during the closing “Crystal Ball” session moderated by DCI’s Andy Levine. Here’s what each panelist predicted as the most important trend shaping site selection in the next three years.
Jay Garner’s Prediction: Natural Gas Growth Will Outstrip Renewable Energy
Will the U.S. become carbon-free by 2035? Will countries participating in the Paris Climate Agreement be carbon-free by 2050? Are renewables the only answer to our electric power generation needs? Or will fossil fuels completely replace the demand for renewables? To all of the above, Guild member Jay Garner of Garner Economics answers: no.
It has become clear that countries need both renewables and fossil fuels to balance energy consumption with sustainability goals. Garner notes that regions with an aversion to fossil fuels, such as the EU or U.K., have become expensive for doing business. Meanwhile, electricity rates are comparatively lower in the U.S., which uses a mix of fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables.
Why does this matter? Factors like electric vehicles, AI and data centers and renewed industrial activity are driving energy demand higher than ever before in human history. Current global demand for electricity is 29,471 TWh, with consumption expected to reach 36,000 TWh in 2030 and 71,000 in 2050 – concentrated in Asia, especially China, and the U.S.
Countries are taking different approaches to meet this surging demand. In 2024, the U.S. added 63 GW of energy capacity, with solar, battery storage and wind leading the way. China added 115 GW of new power, mainly from coal. India today is the largest buyer of U.S. coal, while France and Germany recently restarted coal plants.
The American story, however, is poised to change. Garner predicts natural gas will emerge as the fastest-growing source of energy in the U.S. by 2028. This will mark an enormous shift from solar, wind and hydropower, as companies race to meet exorbitant energy needs with natural gas or even coal power.
Jan Desmaretz’s Prediction: Companies Will Shift from Global to Regional Focus
For Guild member Jan Desmaretz of Alvarez & Marsal, the main question to ask in the next three years is not “where to go global” but “how to go regional.” The dream of seamless globalization is giving way to the rise of regional blocs, with trade volume between major blocs likely to decrease. Companies worldwide are reorganizing their footprints to prioritize resilience, speed and political alignments rather than cost alone.
What does the new global order look like? Desmaretz sees the U.S. continuing to lead, albeit in a more fragmented world. Europe will redefine its own strategic autonomy. China is positioning itself as a disruptive power focused on self-sufficiency. The rest of the world may find itself “stuck between a bloc and a hard place.”
Consequently, communities should prepare for the rise of regional hubs. Desmaretz predicts companies will adopt a multi-tiered approach in their global strategy, focusing on regional markets to tailor products and services to local needs. Smaller, modular sites, increased intra-bloc trading and parallel financial systems are all on the horizon.
On the other hand, Desmaretz notes that with regional production comes regional envy. Consumers may soon start to long for products or services that are available in other markets but not their own. With time, consumer envy could prove to be the ultimate peacemaker between blocs
Mike Mullis’ Prediction: Federal Reserve Changes Will Spur Economic Development
Guild member Mike Mullis of J.M. Mullis Inc., meanwhile, foresees seismic shifts in monetary policy. Mullis predicts the U.S. Federal Reserve will undergo changes in its executive management and streamline its policies in a new direction by 2028. In turn, these changes will reverberate through the world of economic development.
The Federal Reserve system was created more than a century ago with three key objectives: maximize employment, stabilize prices and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed has largely aimed to guide economic activity by manipulating interest rates, with the belief that there is a trade-off between lower unemployment and higher inflation.
Mullis anticipates the current U.S. administration will approach the system differently. That means new decision-making models focused on reducing inflation, as well as enhanced oversight of financial institutions to ensure stability and accountability. Incoming appointments in the Fed’s leadership will seek to return financial control to states and individuals, promoting a balanced budget approach.
Overall, Mullis stresses that economic development organizations need to understand the Federal Reserve’s role in economic policy to anticipate changes that may impact local economies and the world at-large. Forward-thinking leaders should strategize how to leverage the possibilities of a shifting economic landscape to generate increased activity for their regions.
Courtney Dunbar’s Prediction: U.S. Battery Manufacturing Will Grow Significantly
Rounding out the discussion, Guild member Courtney Dunbar of Burns & McDonell predicts that U.S. battery manufacturing will grow by at least 33% within the next three years. As a result, communities with the right types of available sites are well-positioned to accommodate new projects in this fast-growing industry.
For Dunbar, the challenge of managing intermittency from diverse energy sources is a core driver of battery production demand. Renewable energy brings risks of grid instability, energy waste and missed opportunities for energy independence. Such risks are heightened by national security priorities and the need for countries to control their own energy supply.
To address these challenges, U.S. government subsidies and investments in domestic production will likely play a key role in continuing to expand the battery sector. Dunbar envisions a boom of subsidies focused on technologies that support energy storage solutions, enabling better integration of various energy sources into the grid.
All this translates to greater economic development prospects for communities. A site with proximity to rail infrastructure, for example, can significantly reduce transportation costs for battery production and improve the speed of raw material delivery and product distribution.
The Winning Prediction
Following the four presentations, conference attendees voted on the prediction most likely to become realized. The winner: Jay Garner’s prediction on natural gas and renewables. In second place: Courtney Dunbar’s prediction on battery manufacturing.
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